Core Concepts
If a term can't be defined cleanly, we don't use it.
Market Concepts
Price
The market's estimate of probability at a point in time. Prices change as information and liquidity change.
Mispricing
A price that does not fully reflect available information or risk.
Liquidity
The amount of money available to absorb betting activity without large price movement.
Pressure
Sustained market activity that forces prices to adjust.
Late Market
The period where liquidity is highest and prices are most tested.
Early Market
The period where prices are formed under low information and low liquidity.
Correction
A price adjustment driven by information or risk alignment.
Noise
Price movement not driven by meaningful information.
Behavioural Risk
Losses caused by emotional or cognitive mistakes rather than probability.
Edge
A structural advantage created by mispricing — not prediction.
Price Stability
When a price resists movement despite market activity, often indicating strong consensus or low information asymmetry.
Market Failure
When prices do not accurately reflect true probability due to structural, behavioural, or liquidity factors.
Information Asymmetry
When some market participants have access to information others do not, creating temporary mispricing.
Anchoring
The behavioural tendency to rely too heavily on early price information when making decisions.
False Signal
Price movement that appears meaningful but is not driven by genuine information or risk adjustment.
These definitions are specific to The Racing Mail methodology. They may differ from general market terminology.
